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Further Research Near-term · 1–2 yr

CVC Survival Effect

Whether corporate backing lowers failure, measured rather than assumed

European startups with corporate backing go bankrupt at 1.24% against 2.58% without, a raw comparison on one secondary source; LATAM has no equivalent, so build the matched study.

The rationale

The European figure is doing work it cannot support. Hello Tomorrow and the EIC report a 1.24% bankruptcy rate for CVC-backed startups against 2.58% for those without, roughly half, on a single secondary source and as a raw comparison. Raw rates cannot separate the effect of corporate money from the selection that precedes it, because corporate investors pick companies that already look like survivors. LATAM has no version of this comparison at all, in a region where only about 40% of corporates run any venture activity against roughly 90% in the US.

The study is a matched design rather than a rate comparison. Pair each CVC-backed venture with non-CVC ventures of the same vertical, stage, vintage and prior funding, then estimate hazard ratios for failure and for time to next round, with procurement conversion as a second outcome. It is the standing instrument the CVC Bridge observatory is meant to house, so collection becomes a by-product of matchmaking rather than a separate research project, and every pitch day adds cohort records to the panel.

The honest constraint is sample size. Dealroom counted US$36.5m of CVC into LATAM deep tech in 2024, about 70% below the 2022 peak of US$119m, so a single vintage will not support a hazard model. The design has to pool cohorts across 2018 to 2024, accept wide intervals and publish them. A study that reports a confident ratio off a hundred companies would be worse than no study, because the ratio would be quoted for a decade after the caveats were lost.

The evidence

1.24% vs 2.58% bankruptcy rate of CVC-backed against non-CVC European startups, a ratio of 0.48 Hello Tomorrow & European Innovation Council (EIC), 2025-07
US$36.5m CVC into LATAM deep tech in 2024, about 70% below the 2022 peak of US$119m, the population a survival study must run on Dealroom.co, 2024
~40% vs 90% share of corporates engaged in CVC, Latin America against the United States, 2021 IESE Business School, 2021

What it unlocks

Evidence on whether corporate backing actually lowers failure in LATAM, matched rather than raw, so founders and CVCs price the relationship honestly.

It has been done before

Europe, the EIC corporate-startup collaboration program

The European figure exists because the engagements were registered first. Hello Tomorrow and the European Innovation Council report more than 1,500 startup-corporate engagements with over 120 corporations since 2017, and it is that recorded population, published in July 2025, from which the 1.24% against 2.58% bankruptcy comparison could be computed at all. The measurement followed the infrastructure, in that order.

Hello Tomorrow & European Innovation Council (EIC), 2025-07

First moves

  1. 0–6 months

    Fix the cohort record at intake

    Add eight mandatory fields to CVC Bridge pitch-day intake, vertical, stage, vintage, prior funding, corporate investor, pilot or procurement status, round date and company status, so every future cohort is analysable without retrospective data collection.

    CVC Bridge / coalition secretariat + regional accelerators
  2. 6–18 months

    Reconstruct the 2018 to 2024 back-book

    Assemble the historic cohort from Dealroom, LAVCA and registry records, match each CVC-backed venture to non-CVC controls on vertical, stage, vintage and prior funding, and publish the matched dataset and the matching code before publishing any result.

    LADP research team + LAVCA + university research partners
  3. 18–36 months

    Publish hazard ratios with intervals and a replication file

    Report failure and time-to-next-round hazard ratios by vertical with confidence intervals, name the cells too thin to report, and release the full replication package alongside the finding.

    CVC × Deep Tech Observatory + IDB Lab

How we would know it worked

  • Share of CVC Bridge pitch-day participants with a complete eight-field intake record, tracked quarterly by the observatory, above 90%.
  • Number of matched pairs in the panel, published per release, reaching 300 or more across the 2018 to 2024 cohorts.
  • Median time from first corporate contact to signed term sheet, tracked quarterly by the observatory, falling below six months.
  • Verticals reportable at or above the pre-registered minimum cell size, counted per release, rising from zero.

What could go wrong

Selection is mistaken for effect

Report a ratio without the matching and it will be quoted as proof that corporate money saves companies, when the likelier reading is that corporate investors pick companies that were going to survive anyway. Contain it by publishing the matched dataset and matching code alongside every headline, and by stating on the same surface that the design measures association under matching, not causation.

The population is too small to answer the question

At US$36.5m a year the LATAM deep tech CVC universe may not produce enough failures to estimate a ratio with useful precision. Contain it by pre-registering the minimum cell size, pooling cohorts across years, and being willing to publish the finding that the region cannot yet answer the question.

Who acts

ResearchersInvestorsFounders

Rests on

09 Corporate Venture Capital A neutral bridge to corporate capital, and a way to measure it

14 Research & Visibility An open data commons and a funding catalogue

The data behind it

Corporate VC into LATAM deep tech
USD millions
$0.0M$50.0M$100.0M$150.0M2020202220232024

Corporate venture capital into the region’s deep tech peaked at USD 119M in 2022, then cooled with the wider funding market. The base is set for the CVC Bridge the report proposes.

As originally publishedAs of 2024Report p.90

As published in the report, September 2025.

SourceDealroom.co, Deep Tech Overview: Latin America

Methodology: Dealroom LATAM deep tech CVC (ledger #127). 2021 is "n/a" in the report (null). Fell 70% from the 2022 peak but still 4× the 2020 base, present the full series, not just the 4×. Needs 2025/H1-2026 extension.

Corporates are leaning in
2.8×Overall corporate venturing growth
4.2×Corporate–deep tech collaborations
71%Of firms expect deep tech to grow in their portfolio

Global corporate venturing grew 2.8× and corporate–deep tech collaborations 4.2×; 71% of firms expect deep tech to weigh more in their portfolios.

As originally publishedAs of 2021Report p.89

As published in the report, September 2025.

SourceIESE Business School, Open Innovation: How Corporate Giants Can Better Collaborate with Deep-Tech Start-ups

Methodology: IESE 2021 (ledger #122). Multipliers over 2017–2021, not a time series. New context: LATAM CVC activity doubled 2020–2023 and AI is now the leading LATAM CVC theme (41% of funds), not in the report.