Deep Tech LATAM Discount Index
An MSCI-style instrument for a gap only measured in listed equities
Listed LATAM equities traded at −48.4% to the world at 30 June 2026 and deep tech probably mirrors the gap, but nothing measures it; build a repeatable, open-methodology index.
The rationale
The number everyone quotes is borrowed. LATAM’s price-to-book discount to the world was −48.4% at 30 June 2026, down from the −51% the report published for 2024, and it is computed on 83 listed large and mid caps, 58.96% Brazilian and 25.9% Mexican. Itaú BBA attributes much of the gap to the fact that LATAM has, in its words, “virtually little exposure” to the tech sector. The one hard discount figure in circulation is therefore measured on an index that excludes almost everything this report is about.
A deep tech discount index prices the same asset on both sides of a border. The unit is a matched pair: a LATAM venture and its closest non-LATAM comparable at the same stage, vertical and revenue band, with the spread in entry valuation reported alongside the frictions that plausibly explain it, time to regulatory approval and time to exit among them. Regulator statistics, deal-level records and a founder and investor survey feed it, and the methodology is published so a disputed reading can be reproduced rather than argued about.
The strongest objection is that the gap may be closing without an index. LATAM equities returned +55.67% in 2025 and the discount to the world narrowed by about 2.6 points between the Itaú BBA 2024 read and the MSCI factsheet of 30 June 2026, which is the report’s own temporary-mispricing thesis playing out. That is the argument for instrumenting it. A series that moves that fast is one where a single undated read is worthless, and an allocator needs the direction of travel more than the level.
The evidence
What it unlocks
A dated, reproducible number for the deep tech discount, so policy and capital argue about a measured gap instead of a borrowed listed-equity statistic.
It has been done before
Europe, Atomico’s State of European Tech
Atomico’s annual State of European Tech turned a diffuse complaint about missing European capital into countable claims. Its 2024 edition established that pension funds account for under 5% of the top 50 deep tech investors by deal count across Europe and the US, which names the absent allocator class instead of describing a shortage. The instrument is repeatable and dated, and LATAM has no equivalent.
First moves
- 0–6 months
Restate the baseline with its date and denominator
Restate the discount everywhere it appears with its date, index and denominator, −48.4% against MSCI ACWI at 30 June 2026 on 83 listed constituents, and publish the calculation so any reader can rerun it from the next factsheet.
LADP research team + coalition secretariat - 6–18 months
Build the matched-pair panel
Assemble a target of 100 to 150 LATAM ventures matched to non-LATAM comparables by stage, vertical and revenue band, and report the entry-valuation spread with confidence bands and per-cell coverage.
LADP research team + LAVCA + IDB Lab - 18–36 months
Attach the frictions and refresh per input
Publish a friction annex sourced to regulators, time to regulatory approval, time to exit, filing and certification cycles, and set the refresh cadence per input stream: the market leg with each quarterly factsheet, the deal-level and regulator legs annually.
National regulators + coalition secretariat + university research partners
How we would know it worked
- Number of matched LATAM and non-LATAM venture pairs in the panel, published per release, reaching 100 or more.
- Median entry-valuation spread for matched pairs, reported with confidence bands each release, and whether it narrows.
- Share of index inputs carrying a named source and an as-of date, checked at release, held at 100%.
- Independent reproductions of the published methodology by a third party, counted annually, at one or more.
What could go wrong
The index becomes an advocacy number
An index built by a coalition that wants LATAM to look underpriced will be read as a lobbying artefact. Contain it by publishing the method and the raw matched pairs before any headline, and by reporting results that move against the thesis, as the narrowing from −51% to −48.4% does.
No matched comparables exist where it matters
LATAM deep tech is concentrated at seed, where private valuations are sparse and often undisclosed, so the panel may be thinnest exactly where the gap is widest. Contain it by reporting coverage per stage and vertical, and by refusing to publish a spread for any cell below a stated minimum count.
Who acts
Rests on
02 Metrics & Success Stories A deep tech KPI framework
14 Research & Visibility An open data commons and a funding catalogue
The data behind it
Latin American assets trade far below global and emerging-market peers, and well beyond the historical average. The report’s core claim: this is a solvable mispricing.
Refreshed June 30, 2026, MSCI.
SourcesMSCI, MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index (USD), Index Factsheet; Itaú BBA Equity Strategy Team, Latam & Brazil Equity Strategy: Thematic Book
Methodology: REFRESHED. Price-to-book discount computed from the MSCI EM Latin America Index factsheet, 30 Jun 2026: LATAM P/BV 1.99 vs ACWI 3.86 = −48.4% (world); vs EM P/BV 2.58 = −22.9%. Narrowed from the Itaú BBA 2024 read (−51% / −27.7%) after LATAM rallied +55.67% in 2025 (ledger #77/#78). Still a market figure that moves daily, asOf is the factsheet date.
| Category | Value |
|---|---|
| historical average | −13.9% |
| vs. emerging markets | −22.9% |
| vs. the world | −48.4% |
Why the discount narrowed. A 55.67% year in 2025 re-rated the region, closing the gap to the world from -51% to -48.4%. 2026 is year to date. This is the report’s "temporary mispricing" thesis partly playing out.
Not in the published report. Added since.
SourceMSCI, MSCI Emerging Markets Latin America Index (USD), Index Factsheet
Methodology: NEW. Annual gross index return. Explains the discount narrowing, +55.67% in 2025 re-rated LATAM. 2026 is YTD (ytd:true).
| Year | Value |
|---|---|
| 2022 | +9.51% |
| 2023 | +33.54% |
| 2024 | −26.02% |
| 2025 | +55.67% |
| 2026 | +10.75% |